The slowdown in corporate revenue growth over the last one year has begun to reflect in India Inc's capital expenditure, or capex. The country's top listed companies are going slow on fresh investment in capacity expansion, in line with a deceleration in their top line growth. The combined fixed assets of the listed companies, excluding banking, finance services and insurance (BFSI) and the government-owned oil & gas firms, were up 10.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during April-September 2023 (H1FY24) - the slowest in 18 months - as against 21.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth in H2FY23 (October 2022-March 2023) and 11.6 per cent growth in the April-September 2022 period (H1FY23).
Rana's blistering attack came in response to AIMIM MLA Akbaruddin Owaisi's controversial speech in 2013 that it would take them only '15 minutes' to balance the 'Hindu- Muslim ratio' in the country if the police were removed.
Customers who possess gold jewellery but are either being denied a personal loan or are being asked for a high interest rate due to their poor credit profile may consider a gold loan.
The froth in the small and midcap (SMID) space is limited to a few pockets, but regulatory scrutiny could lead to sustained volatility, observe India's top-drawer wealth managers. They add that they have been advising clients to reduce their exposure to smallcaps. Anand Rathi Wealth, which manages investor wealth through mutual funds (MFs), reports that its exposure to smallcap stocks, both through MFs and directly, has decreased by nearly 7 percentage points in the past few months, now standing at 23 per cent.
The cost of deposits is on the rise, but banks can't raise interest rate on close to 60% of their loan books, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Shares of Le Travenues, which operates online travel booking platform ixigo, soared 78 per cent on their market debut (June 18) and surged 80.4 per cent in the three days over their issue price. Ixigo has joined competitors EaseMyTrip and Yatra on the bourses. Analysts believe the blockbuster response to ixigo may lead to greater scrutiny of the financial performance of other online travel aggregators (OTAs) like Easy Trip Planners, and Yatra Online.
Notwithstanding concerns about lofty valuations, smallcaps recorded their most significant monthly gain in nearly three years in November. The National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 100 finished the month with a 12 per cent gain, the most since February 2021 when it rose by 12.2 per cent. After declining by 4.1 per cent in the preceding month, the Nifty Midcap 100 rose by 10.4 per cent, the most since July 2022.
'We emphasise the importance of not basing investment decisions solely on electoral outcomes.' 'Instead, focusing on investing in high-quality businesses capable of prospering regardless of the political landscape is paramount.'
Swift gains on Dalal Street this year have also led to a sharp surge in shares of equity market intermediaries like depositories, exchanges, and registrar and transfer Agents (RTAs). The stock prices of BSE, CDSL, CAMS, and KFin Technologies are up 24-283 per cent so far in 2023 when compared to a 9 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty index. With the market buoyancy expected to keep up the pace, analysts believe these stocks are a good long-term bet despite the sharp rally, which can trigger an intermittent correction.
While the government has not made the report public, sources said the panel had recommended a sharp cut in all taxes on the gold business, including import duty and goods and services tax which amounts to over 13%.
The index is currently trading at 149 per cent of its historical P/B valuation, surpassing its previous peak of 125 per cent made in 2020-21.
The rally in silver may continue if the global economic recovery remains on course.
Fund managers of large-cap and equity-linked saving schemes (ELSS) have demonstrated a marked improvement in their performance over the past year, according to the latest SPIVA (S&P Indices Versus Active) report released by S&P Dow Jones Indices. In the one-year period ending June 2023, 17 per cent of active large-cap schemes outperformed the S&P BSE 100, compared to just 9 per cent at the end of June 2022. In the case of ELSS, there was a sharp improvement in performance, with 66 per cent of active schemes delivering better returns than the benchmark S&P BSE 200.
'If their allocation to certain segments have become high due to strong returns over the past three-four years, they should rebalance their portfolios and bring them in line with their long-term asset allocation.'
Shares of public sector enterprises have corrected by up to 22 per cent month-to-date until March 19, 2024. Analysts attribute this steep fall to the valuation exuberance seen after a sharp run in these counters last year and suggest investors remain selective regarding the stocks in this space. "The rally in public sector undertaking (PSU) stocks has been stretched and sharp, although it is somewhat justified by improvements seen in earnings, operations, balance sheets, and overall profitability.
Weakness in HDFC Bank's net interest margin (NIM) might have bottomed out in the July-September quarter (Q2-FY24), analysts said on Tuesday, as most of the merger-related one-time adjustments have been done. The bank, they believe, should be able to grow from here on, allowing the stock to reverse its underperformance. "The weak NIM print was not unexpected given the merger and regulatory impact caused by the incremental cash reserve ratio (ICRR; 5-10 bps for the quarter).
Households may be feeling the pinch of higher inflation but corporate India is enjoying record high margins and profits. The combined quarterly net profit of listed companies scaled a new high in the April-June 2023 quarter owing to a sharp rise in operating and net profit. The expansion in margins more than compensated for the slowdown in revenue growth, which slipped into single digits in Q1FY24 after a gap of nine quarters.
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market. Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.
The market capitalisation of Adani Group companies rose by nearly Rs 73,000 crore on Monday as investors lapped up shares of the power-to-port conglomerate after BJP's electoral wins in three states, spurring hopes of regime continuity at the Centre. The Gautam Adani group's market map once again neared the Rs 12-trillion mark, following sharp gains made over the past week. "Two big overhangs for the Adani Group have receded somewhat following the state election results, there is more certainty that the BJP will win a third time next year.
The banking regulator was uncomfortable with the runaway pace at which consumer credit was growing.
'If you invest in sovereign gold bond, you are going to get the price rise of gold over an eight year period.' 'You're also going to get that two-and-a-half percent which the Government of India is willing to give you, treating the money that you've invested in the sovereign gold bond as a kind of a FD or a deposit.' 'That kind of return you can never get anywhere else.'
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
If a 5% to 10% fall in the equity market gives you sleepless nights, you are not cut out for a 75% to 80% allocation to equities and must reduce it.
Asset Management Companies (AMCs) demonstrated improved business metrics in the first quarter ended June 2023 (Q1FY24), but a sharp run-up in stocks leaves little room for further upside in the immediate term, say analysts. During this quarter, HDFC AMC reported a 10 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in revenue from operations at Rs 575 crore. Nippon India's revenue from operations went up 12 per cent to Rs 354 crore.
State Bank of India's earnings growth may turn lacklustre in the near-term, warn analysts. This, they said, could be due to margin compression and likely lower fee income over the next one year. "While the cost of deposits is repricing sharply across the system, there will be relatively lower yield expansion going ahead as most of the back-book has been repriced and there is a high competitive pressure on yields.
Shares of Mukesh Ambani-owned Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) rose nearly 1 per cent on Tuesday, hitting an intraday high of Rs 2,986.05 per share, after most brokerages reacted positively to the company's March quarter (Q4FY24) results. The bullish outlook stems from Reliance Jio's potential tariff hikes, given the competitive landscape, along with slow but steady improvement in the oil-to-chemical (O2C) vertical.
Harry Markowitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, introduced modern portfolio theory, a theory of finance that shows how risk averse investors can construct portfolio to maximize expected return for a given level of risk or to minimize risk for a given level of expected return.
'The CEA suggested that could be as high as 19 per cent.'
Brokerages have lowered the price targets of asset management companies (AMCs) since they failed to beat revenue growth expectations in the January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) of 2022-23 (FY23). The regulator's plans to lower the fee charged by AMCs also added to concerns. While HDFC AMC and Nippon Life India AMC reported modest growth in revenue from operations in Q4FY23, UTI AMC and Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC delivered yet another weak quarter.
Corporate India continues to be generous in rewarding its shareholders with big dividend payouts. This is especially true for shareholders of companies such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Hindustan Zinc (HZL), and Coal India (CIL) which are seen as cash cows of large business groups and the government. Boosted by a big payout by these three companies, the combined equity dividend payout by listed companies was up 38 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to a record high of Rs 2.27 trillion in 2022-23 (FY23), compared with Rs 1.65 trillion in 2021-22 (FY22).
The banking system's liquidity slipped into deficit for the first time in the current financial year (2023-24) due to the imposition of the Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (I-CRR) for banks and outflows from goods and services tax (GST) payments, according to dealers. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows it injected Rs 23,644 crore on August 21. The last time liquidity was in deficit was on March 27, when the RBI injected Rs 45,575 crore.
At an aggregate level, the late ace investor's portfolio that was valued at Rs 32,445 crore as on March 31, 2023 is now worth Rs 35,979 crore.
Over the past year, the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG Index, which tracks the market capitalisation of the top 15 companies in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, has surged by 17.3 per cent. In contrast, the Nifty50, a broader market index, has witnessed an 8.8 per cent increase during the same period. The FMCG stocks have also been rally leaders in the current calendar year.
The argument that India is going towards a 'Hindu rate of growth' is "ill-conceived, biased and pre-mature" when weighed against the respective data on savings and investments, said SBI Research in its Ecowrap report. The term Hindu rate of growth was coined by economist Raj Krishna in 1978, which denoted the economic growth of about 3.5-4.0 per cent in terms of GDP during 1947-1980. "India's quarterly sequential Y-o-Y GDP growth has been in a declining trend in FY23.
Corporate India's credit quality showed a sharp improvement in the second half of FY22, but high input prices and withdrawal of pandemic-related relief measures can pose pressures in the new year, rating agencies said on Friday. Crisil Ratings, which rates a large number of financial sector entities, reported an improvement in the credit ratio -- the number of upgrades to downgrade -- to 5.04 times in the second half of this financial year, from the 2.96 per cent in the first half of the fiscal. It attributed the improvement to a sustained rebound in demand, which lifted revenues of most sectors to pre-pandemic levels and proactive relief measures by the government that cushioned the pandemic blow.
The report said resilience of the banks has increased with a sharp improvement in the provision coverage ratio to 60.6 per cent in March 2019 from 52.4 per cent in September 2018 and 48.3 per cent in March 2018.
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare's June quarter numbers were better than Street estimates, led by strong sales and robust margins. The company, which owns leading consumer brands like Whisper, Vicks and Old Spice, posted a 12.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in sales at Rs 852.5 crore during the quarter. The double digit sales growth, led by expansion of its distribution reach, reverses a sluggish sales graph with three of the last four quarters reporting a fall in sales.
India's budget for the fiscal beginning April focuses on giving a boost to the ongoing economic recovery through a sharp increase in capex spending but is short on major growth-enhancing structural reform announcements, Fitch Ratings said Wednesday. The deficit targets present in the Union budget 2022-23 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday "are a bit higher than our forecasts when we affirmed India's 'BBB'/Negative sovereign rating in November," said Jeremy Zook, director and primary sovereign analyst for India, Fitch Ratings. While it was widely expected that the fiscal deficit will be lower than the targeted 6.8 per cent of the GDP in the current fiscal year ending March 31, 2022, Sitharaman put the number at 6.9 per cent.
Commercial banks in the country continued with their improving asset quality trend in the October-December 2021 quarter with slippages remaining under control coupled with healthy recoveries and upgradation of asset classification. The 28-listed banks reported improvement in bottom line with net profits rising 64.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and 21.5 per cent sequentially. This is mostly on account of a fall in provisions and contingencies.
